KRIGiS: Vulnerability/Impact Studies with a focus on Tourism and Critical Infrastructures

In Hungary, some increase has already been detected in intensity and frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes. All these confirm the necessity of adaptation to climate change. Climate change impacts on human health has already been assessed in Hungary and health effects of heatwaves have been monitored. Climatic conditions of several touristic target areas are investigated using international methodology and adaptation of the available indices and approaches have been also started for Hungarian population recently. At the same time, important components of transport sector have not been defined and designed in lack of commencing the related government regulation, therefore, no detailed assessment is available for the country.

There have not been existing and harmonized researches for climate change impacts on different sectors yet. To prepare targeted and sustainable adaptation strategies, it is indispensable to elaborate an objective approach helping quantify the exposure, vulnerability and adaptation capacity of any sectors. Main purposes of the project are to establish such a methodology for the tourism and critical infrastructures (with special emphasis on human health and road networks), and to extend the NAGIS with the related indicators for exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. High-quality meteorological information of NAGIS makes possible not only that further users (researchers, decision makers) can apply the information based on the same (i.e., consistent) input data, but the methodology to be prepared in the framework of the project can also be adapted to other studies. During the proposed action, direct exposure indicators will be defined and developed with special focus on estimating the effects of extreme weather events. The basic methodology developed in the project can be extended with the quantification of methodology uncertainties in a later stage, for instance.

Since the project is concentrating on tourism and critical infrastructures, strong collaboration with professionals of these sectors will be scheduled. Furthermore, for later extension of the methodology, consultation with experts of other sectors are also planned. A cooperation is already built up with the Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary (MFGI) in the framework of the core component (C1) of NAGIS and some professionals through MFGI, so the project will be supported by existing collaborations, as well. The most important objectives are: The most important objectives of the project are as follows:

• Study of the excess mortality related to heatwaves: the excess mortality caused by extreme temperature events will be determined using temperature data on 10 km horizontal resolution and mortality data of the local population for every settlement for the reference period. The expected change of the heatwave-related deaths are evaluated for sub-regions (NUTS4 statistical regions) and for grid points for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 based on the 10 km horizontal resolution daily temperature data of the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model used at the Hungarian Meteorological Service.
• Impact and vulnerability assessment of road accidents within extreme weather events: Road sections exposed to significant risk will be identified by locating of those road accident incidents where disaster management units’ interventions were performed and which were recorded during heatwave periods as well as cold wintertime periods with heavy precipitation between 2011 and 2014. Mapping of exposure will be based on measurement data and climate modelling results of OMSZ, while the transport accident data recorded at the central body of disaster management will serve as a basis for sensitivity mapping. An impact map will be developed through the integration of the exposure and sensitivity mapping layers. As a final GIS task, layers of the adaptation indicator determined by the response times of fire fighter units will be added which will result in a sensitivity map. Spatial information provided by this map for the whole country will be analysed in a study which will contain adaptation recommendations for decision makers.
• Effects of climate conditions on tourism: A thorough literature review will be carried out on tourism-related indices of TCI (Tourism Climatic Index) and CIT (Climate Index for Tourism). The TCI indicator will be modified as such to express the thermal estimation of the Hungarian population. CIT and both the original and modified TCI data will be calculated on the applied 10 km horizontal resolution grid, also on a settlement (sub-regional) level for the reference period, while using ALADIN-Climate regional climate model outputs for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, as well.